Section 1: The Supply Chain in the AI Era
- Overview of the Plan, Source, Make, Deliver and Return supply chain cycle
- The bullwhip effect and how its impact ripples through the supply chain
- Seasonal swings, raw material prices, delivery lead times and supplier risk
- Why volatility makes traditional planning no longer enough
Section 2: AI Use Cases Across the Supply Chain
- Demand sensing and demand forecasting
- Inventory optimization and supplier risk assessment
- AI in logistics and generative AI for procurement
- Case studies of AI in manufacturing supply chains
Section 3: Demand Forecasting Fundamentals
- Time series components: trend, seasonality and noise
- Moving average and exponential smoothing methods
- Machine learning forecasting compared with traditional methods
- MAPE and forecast bias for data-driven decisions instead of trusting AI unconditionally
Section 4: Hands-On Forecasting in Excel
- Creating a forecast with Forecast Sheet (ETS) in Excel
- Having Copilot build a forecast with Python in Excel
- Comparing the accuracy of each method with MAPE and forecast bias
- Lab: forecast simulated sales data both ways and choose the better result
Section 5: Forecast with Data, Decide with People
- Combining AI forecasts with human decision making
- Adjusting forecasts with market information the model cannot see
- Building a consensus forecast across the functions involved
- The role of the forecast in the S&OP process
Section 6: Workshop 1: Seasonal Demand Forecast
- Case: five simulated products with different seasonal patterns, forecast 12 months ahead
- Measure the forecast accuracy of each product with MAPE and forecast bias
- Use the case study provided by the instructor or masked data from your own work
- Workshop: summarize the forecast to carry into day 2